Trilateral Relations between China, India and Japan in Times of Volatility and Power Shift

抄録

Asia is the site of global power shift in the 21st century. In times of the volatility and power shift, how do Asian countries manage to influence the international setting? Where are the emerging giants, China and India, going? What could be Japanese option? The author attempts to characterize those big three and to grasp the nature of the triangle relations of those countries.

Japan and China are the “Developmental States”. Both experienced the decades of rapid growth under the American hegemony. The rise of Japan was focused in the American policy circle since the late 1970s to 1990s, while the rise of China has been concerned since the early 2000s to today. Japan was not a serious threat to the US, however, for it was democratized by the US-led occupational forces after the end of WWII and controlled by the US-Japan Security Treaty. China is a different story: it maintains or even strengthens its own dictatorial regime under the Chinese Communist Party, keeping independence from the US-led coalition.

China and India share several similarities, too. First, both were established by the nationalist parties, the Chinese Communist Party and the Indian National Congress in the late 1940s. Second, those experienced the partition at the time of independence, the split between Mainland China and Kuomintang’s Taiwan as well as the partition of India and Pakistan. Third, China and India became ‘socialist states’ during the Cold War. Fourth, both have the territorial disputes with the neighboring countries including each other. Fifth, they embrace a strong nationalism to integrate its nation in the multi-ethnic and multi-religious societies.

Based on the above understanding, “Maritime International Politics in the Indo-Pacific and India-Japan Global Partnership” and “Eurasian Continental Politics: Great Game without US, EU and Japan?” will be discussed to lead to the conclusive argument. The rise of China, the growth of India, the Japanese downturn, and the decline of American hegemony do not have to destabilize international society. The World Economic Forum predicted, “Asia’s GDP will overtake the GDP of the rest of the world combined”. Such a tendency will be strengthened after the pandemic. As a leading democratic state, American ally and Chinese close neighbor, Japan should find a way to promote peaceful coexistence and cooperation. “Power shift does not have to bring a state of anarchy”, as Amitav Acharya suggested. Asia must have enough capability to bring a state of peaceful order in this region and global society.