中国における需要拡大型の産業政策―理論的考察とその評価

抄録

This paper reexamines China’s industrial policy, which has attracted worldwide attention, from a long-term and universal perspective. The recent trend of reviving industrial policies to promote competition and innovation is a global phenomenon. China’s industrial policy, which dwarfs other countries in scale, also aligns with this trend. Yet, what are the characteristics of China’s industrial policy beyond its impressive scale? In examining the connections between “demand-expansion industrial policy” and a “flooded market,” the paper suggests that a virtuous cycle may be at work as follows. First, the market is expanded through government subsidies and infrastructure construction. Private firms then rush into intermediate goods sectors, which advances the division of labor, lowering costs and further expanding the market. The paper also considers industrial policies aimed at new energy vehicles (NEVs), which are currently attracting attention from the perspective of such a virtuous cycle. Conversely, industrial policies that do not involve such demand expansion and favor certain firms, such as state-owned enterprises, do not necessarily produce the desired results.