MODELING PARTY SUPPORT OF JAPANESE VOTERS IN THE EARLY 1996

抄録

This article investigates factors that influenced Japanese voters in the early 1996 in determining which political party to support. Proportional-odds model, a model which retains ordinal nature of political hues or ideologies of the Japanese political parties, is fitted to the data. Samples with answers “I do not know$rdquo; to the questions are treated as missing. The EM algorithm enables us to incorporate the samples with missingvalues. We found that determining which party to support is a purely political decision for Japanese voters based solely on their ideologies and attitude towards the current cabinet, not to be influenced by their geographical profiles nor financial situations. Missing-value problem were found not to be ignored in the sense that marginally significant or insignificant explanatory variables can easily turn otherwise when the same model is fitted only for the data with no missing-values.