Abstract
The object of this study is to develop the framework for the scenario approach-based strategic plans for biodiversity conservation, and to quantitatively examine potential effects of the plans. The analysis is made by being interfaced between land cover and driving force elements to maintain biodiversity and for example the change of the amount of population, land use, industrial structure. We choose the Arakawa river basin as study area. We have designed several scenarios based on some conceptual descriptions and quantitative GIS data. Conservation policies were planned for each scenario and their implementaion effects were estimated by developing the habitat prediction models. As a result, potential improvement effects of various policies are examined in the three future scenarios and a Business as usual scenario. The study found the importance of making a strategic biodiversity conservation policy in conjunction with future land use changes.
