Country-specific Impact Assessment of Potential Productivity Changes of Rice and Wheat under Greenhouse Gas Stabilization Targets utilizing Integrated Assessment Model

Abstract

In order to investigate the stabilization target of greenhouse gas concentration for avoiding the dangerous climate change impacts, cost of mitigation and climate change impacts in various fields should be assessed comprehensively. In this study, 1)existing stabilization scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations were summarized from the viewpoint of mitigation, 2)country-specific impact assessment of potential productivity changes of rice and wheat under some stabilization targets utilizing an integrated assessment model was carried out. As a result, our study revealed that stabilization target with low greenhouse gas concentrations enables to reduce the climate change impacts in contrast to the BaU case. However, in order to maintain greenhouse gas concentrations at low level, a full-scale greenhouse gas reduction policy is urgently needed.