Future Changes in Heat Stress in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area using Meso-scale Meteorological Simulation

Abstract

In order to clarify future changes in heat stress, we evaluated the future heat stress in Kanto, Japan, in August by using the pseudo-global warming method. The future climate was calculated by dynamical downscaling of the d4PDF +4 K future and +2 K future climate simulations using WRF and then WBGT, a heat stress index was analyzed. The simulations showed a significant increase of areas classified as the most dangerous heat stress in the future. Calculations of the contribution of each weather factor to future changes in WBGT showed that radiation would be stronger effects in Otemachi, temperature would be higher influence in Kumagaya for the +2 K future climate simulations, and temperature would be more effective in both Otemachi and Kumagaya for the +4 K future climate simulations.