Feasibility Study of 2030 NDC with the Extended Input-Output Table Considering Structural Changes about Automotive and Energy Sectors

Abstract

In Japan, the automobile industry accounts for nearly one-fifth of manufacturing shipments and drives about JPY 20 trillion in annual fossil-fuel imports and associated CO₂ emissions. To assess whether Japan’s 2030 NDC is attainable, this study develops a comprehensive input–output framework incorporating vehicle electrification, renewable-power expansion, and declining fossil-fuel use. Starting from the IONGES 2030 prototype, we re-estimated IO tables from 2015 to 2030 using observed vehicle-registration data and power-generation trends. Finally, we propose an “Import Substitution Policy Efficiency” index, expressing the ratio of positive effect to negative impact when an industry is shifted to full domestic sourcing and manufacturing.