抄録
Based on the characteristics of the Chinese financial system, this paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of how money supply, bank lending, real estate development loans, and house purchasing loans influenced the commercialized and residential building prices during the period from 2003:2Q to 2011:3Q. The study also compares the influences of money supply and total lending on commercialized building prices during the period from 1999:1M to 2003:3M with those during the period from 2003:4M to 2011:9M. The impulse response functions of the four generalized VAR models show that, besides different time lags, a positive money supply shock leads to the largest increase in commercialized building prices, followed by a positive shock to total lending and house purchasing loans, whereas a positive real estate development loans shock causes a slight decline in commercialized building prices. Residential building prices are more sensitive to a shock to money supply, total lending, and house purchasing loans than non-residential building price, whereas they are less sensitive to a shock to real estate development loans. The real interest rate shock positively influenced the commercialized building prices after 2003:3M; however its effect was smaller than that of shocks to money supply and total lending. Interestingly, the response of commercialized building prices to a money supply shock was much stronger from 2003:3M to 2011:9M than that from 1999:1M to 2003:3M because the financial system reforms after 2003 strengthened the transmission between the money supply and banking credit and, thus, enhanced the effects of money supply on commercialized building prices.
