抄録
This paper is designed to give new insight into agricultural development in China proper (not including Manchuria) during 1930s and 40s based on new estimate of output and price of agricultural products.
The estimate in this paper has some advantages over previous studies of B.S. Wu et al., T.C. Liu and K.C. Yeh, D.H. Perkins. Firstly, it uses newly discovered statistical materials such as crop survey in northern provinces conducted by Japanese organizations and nation-wide comprehensive price survey carried out by Communist local governments in the mid 1950s. Secondly, diet and nutrition surveys carried out by Chinese and foreign experts in 1920s and 1930s are compiled to examine the reliability of output estimate.
The following are main findings in this paper:
1) Agricultural output estimate in this paper seems to be the most reliable because food consumptions calculated from it are consistent with diet and nutrition materials.
2) Agricultural production value and value added for 1933 in this paper is lower than that of previous studies (Wu et al. and Liu and Yeh).
3) Production decreased sharply in northern and central China in the late 1930s due to the war against Japan, while that in southwestern provinces changed constantly.
4) There was a tendency towards rising output in Chinese agriculture after 1943, which seemed to be a cause of agricultural development in the early era of the Communist China.
5) China proper recorded the lowest agricultural GDP growth among the East Asian Countries/regions (Japan proper, Korean peninsula, Taiwan and Manchuria) and lower TFP growth than that of Japanese counterpart.
