中国経済研究
Online ISSN : 2436-6803
Print ISSN : 1348-2521
ISSN-L : 1348-2521
2 巻, 1 号
中国経済研究
選択された号の論文の8件中1~8を表示しています
会長特別寄稿
  • 日本との比較
    南 亮進
    2004 年 2 巻 1 号 p. 1-17
    発行日: 2004年
    公開日: 2022/03/03
    ジャーナル オープンアクセス
    The aim of this paper is to provide a comparison of the dominant causes and consequences of high-pitched economic growth in China for the 1980s and 1990s and Japan for the 1950s and 1960s, and in doing so, to clarify the characteristics of the Chinese economy. Main causes of this phenomenon in China were rapid technological progress and prosperous capital formation. According to our estimation growth of total factor productivity in China's manufacturing sector is so rapid as in Japan. This finding should be considered as a critique to the statement by Paul Krugman to stress low rate of technological progress in the Asian economies. Dissimilarity with Japan exists in the fact that rapid technological progress in China is largely dependent on foreign direct investment, while this type of investment was negligible in Japan. By estimating investment function in China's non-agricultural sector we found that investment is closely related with rate of return on capital. This result, which was found in Japan also, is contrasted with the usual notion to emphasize irrational investment behavior. Despite a sharp rise in per capita GDP in both countries, the substance of economic growth differed greatly. Firstly, unemployment rate rose dramatically and labor surplus still exists in China, while the rate decreased and labor surplus disappeared in Japan. Secondly, income distribution has been deteriorating significantly in China, while improved in Japan. The author explained these dissimilarities by a low rate of non-agriculture in total employment and a relatively low dependence on this sector in creating employment opportunities. In other words a difference in the degree of economic development was a decisive factor for the aforementioned dissimilarities.
論文
  • 省級行政区別データによる分析
    矢口 優
    2004 年 2 巻 1 号 p. 18-36
    発行日: 2004年
    公開日: 2022/03/03
    ジャーナル オープンアクセス
    This paper explores the determinants of atmospheric environmental quality in China. It estimates the emission factor and energy functions of mining and industrial sectors for the period 1991-1999. I postulate the hypothesis that local governments have incentives to internalize the local external diseconomies arising from the S0₂ emissions, while they have little incentive to cut the use of energy as it is likely to work against the activities of local industries. I also hypothesize that the governments have little interest in reducing the C0₂ emissions, as the external diseconomies due to the different nature of the externalities. In order to substantiate these hypotheses, we decompose emissions of S0₂ and C0₂ into two factors: the emission factor and the energy consumption. We then examine the determinants of each factor of the emissions of the two air-pollutants. The results show that the share of heavy industry in provincial GDP and the value-added share of state-owned enterprises are the two main factors to reduce the emission factor of S0₂ , and the structural difference between urban and non-urban areas is verified. The empirical evidence implies that even though the S0₂ emissions have kept increasing, there is little evidence to show the local government to reduce the S0₂ pollution problem in the urban area. This finding is not applicable to the cases of C0₂ and energy consumption, and the outcome has profound policy implications. In order to reduce the greenhouse-effect gases, China needs to improve the efficiency of energy-use further in accordance with a new international treaty in which China is expected to participate.
  • 推計と分析
    牧野 文夫
    2004 年 2 巻 1 号 p. 37-62
    発行日: 2004年
    公開日: 2022/03/03
    ジャーナル オープンアクセス
    This paper is designed to give new insight into agricultural development in China proper (not including Manchuria) during 1930s and 40s based on new estimate of output and price of agricultural products. The estimate in this paper has some advantages over previous studies of B.S. Wu et al., T.C. Liu and K.C. Yeh, D.H. Perkins. Firstly, it uses newly discovered statistical materials such as crop survey in northern provinces conducted by Japanese organizations and nation-wide comprehensive price survey carried out by Communist local governments in the mid 1950s. Secondly, diet and nutrition surveys carried out by Chinese and foreign experts in 1920s and 1930s are compiled to examine the reliability of output estimate. The following are main findings in this paper: 1) Agricultural output estimate in this paper seems to be the most reliable because food consumptions calculated from it are consistent with diet and nutrition materials. 2) Agricultural production value and value added for 1933 in this paper is lower than that of previous studies (Wu et al. and Liu and Yeh). 3) Production decreased sharply in northern and central China in the late 1930s due to the war against Japan, while that in southwestern provinces changed constantly. 4) There was a tendency towards rising output in Chinese agriculture after 1943, which seemed to be a cause of agricultural development in the early era of the Communist China. 5) China proper recorded the lowest agricultural GDP growth among the East Asian Countries/regions (Japan proper, Korean peninsula, Taiwan and Manchuria) and lower TFP growth than that of Japanese counterpart.
研究ノート
  • GARCHモデルによる分析
    熊本 方雄, 熊本 尚雄
    2004 年 2 巻 1 号 p. 63-78
    発行日: 2004年
    公開日: 2022/03/03
    ジャーナル オープンアクセス
    Since the advent of the flexible exchange rate system in 1973, various papers investigated the effects of exchange rate volatility on international trade flows. However, a basic paradox as to the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows remains unsolved at both the theoretical and empirical level. In this paper, we investigate whether real effective exchange rate volatility of renminbi has an effect on the export flows from China to Japan. In analysis, we investigate not only the short-run effect but also the long-run effect of the exchange rate volatility on the export flows. For this purpose, we use ARDL approach for estimation. Furthermore, in estimation of the exchange rate volatility, we use conditional variance estimated by GARCH model to avoid generated regressors problems indicated by Pagan (1984). As a result, we obtain that the exchange rate volatility does not have an effect on export flows in the long-run, while it has a significant negative effect on them in the short-run. These results mean that it is desirable for China to adopt the exchange rate regime reflecting the relation of foreign trade such as currency basket, because it is expected that international trade between China and East Asian countries is enlarged in the near future.
  • 日本との比較を中心に
    胡 秋陽
    2004 年 2 巻 1 号 p. 79-99
    発行日: 2004年
    公開日: 2022/03/03
    ジャーナル オープンアクセス
    Using an original conjunction Input-Output table of China, which is comparable with that of, this study examines the industrial structures and their changes in China and Japan. Main findings are as follows: (1) Due to the " high processing degree" and "detourization" in China's production, production-promoting power of the final demand is rising, while its structure isn't. Domestic demand on the third industry is weak, and export has no effect on intra-industry upgrading. Furthermore, the production-promoting performance of investment is low because of the existence of a large imbalance between demand items. (2) Although the dependence structure of production-promoting in China is a kind of "domestic demand induced", the depending degree on export is rising at a high level. (3) Since production expansion in China from 1987 to 1997 is mainly " demand-led" , the role of investment is weak; therefore the consumption-induced production expansion effect is given much more importance. Hence the contribution of export expansion is rising. Furthermore, production expansion effects caused by consumption expanding and structural changes in intermediate inputs are structural lagging, while the degree of export in the intra 2nd industry is slow. (4) It may look that China's industries have been industrializing because of the high production shares. However, rather than structural progressing in the final demand, this progress is depending on large inputs in industrial intermediate goods, mostly on " self circulation mechanism" in the heavy industry sector. Based on the findings, we present several policy proposals on changing of industrial structure.
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