2021 Volume 2021 Issue 132 Pages 15-24
To identify climate change impacts on tea cultivation within Shizuoka Prefecture, Japan, correlation analyses between meteorological data and first crop situation data were conducted, and a regression equation for estimating tea harvest dates of first crops was derived. Using the regression equation and climate model datasets of 1-km spatial resolution, future tea harvest dates of first crops were estimated, and were overlaid with a tea plantation map of Shizuoka Prefecture, which was created separately. It was estimated that tea harvest dates of first crops in Shizuoka Prefecture would advance by three to seven days under the RCP2.6 scenario and by more than ten days under the RCP8.5 scenario by the end of the 21st century.
