Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies
Online ISSN : 1881-1124
ISSN-L : 1341-8521
C: Travel Demand Analysis and Forecast
Estimation of Freeway Dynamic Origin-destination Matrices: A Novel Approach
Chun-Ming TSENGYu-Chiun CHIOULawrence W. LAN
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2013 年 10 巻 p. 816-830

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In this study, a novel approach incorporating a two-stage prediction model with an integrated algorithm is proposed to estimate freeway dynamic origin-destination (O-D) matrices. The two-stage prediction model uses growing hierarchical self-organizing map (GHSOM) to extract clusters of traffic patterns and then uses genetic programming (GP) to predict the on-ramp traffic flow in each cluster. The integrated algorithm combines cell transmission model (CTM) with extended Kalman filtering (EKF) to estimate the arrival distributions and the O-D proportions. To demonstrate the proposed approach, a field study of on-ramp traffic patterns on a freeway stretch is examined. The results show that the proposed approach can accurately predict the traffic and satisfactorily estimate the O-D proportions along the freeway stretch.
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© 2013 Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies
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