Estimation of CO2 Emission from Passenger Cars and Its Factor Decomposition: Case Study for Tokyo Metropolitan Area and Kagawa Prefecture

抄録

This study estimated the CO2 emission from passenger cars in Tokyo and Kagawa from 2010 to 2050, and analyzed the impact of population, demography, urban structure and automotive technologies. As a result, the CO2 emissions in both cities are estimated to decline 65-70% in 2050 from 2010. Effect of automobile technology improvement on emission reduction is calculated as 42%-44%. The impact of population change is 10% in Tokyo and 17% in Kagawa that reflects the higher population reduction rate in local city. The effect of urban compaction is estimated only 1% to 2%. To achieve the government goal of 80% reduction of the CO2 emission by 2050, incorporation with substantial enforcement of urban policy is discussed. These urban compaction policies are needed not only for the CO2 emission reduction but also to achieve the sustainable urban transport and finance of local government.