2019 年 13 巻 p. 482-502
Most PPP urban railway projects in Asia have not succeeded. We have analyzed the reasons and risks of these projects qualitatively. The purpose of this paper is to get lessons from these failures and to know the information of better project scheme for new urban railway in Asia. In this paper we make quantitative analysis on each risk focusing on the Blue Line in Bangkok, the MRT Line 3 in Manila and the Kaohsiung Metro to understand the priority of improvement for these risks. Upon review of related literature and analysis of financial and operational data, this paper identifies various risks encountered and the risks allocation in the projects and prepares financial model of the projects to demonstrate the quantitative impacts caused by said risks. Finally, the paper provides the considerations focusing on the most influential issues and concludes with a series of suggestions to improve the projects.
