Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies
Online ISSN : 1881-1124
ISSN-L : 1341-8521
A: Transportation General
Earthquake Evacuation Choice Models Based on the Stated Preference Approach for Residents in Surigao City, Philippines
Sherwin Roy CALUMBAAlexis FILLONEMonorom RITH
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2019 Volume 13 Pages 70-79


This paper intends to explore the impact of facility damage, evacuation distance, and tsunami warning on earthquake evacuation choice using the primary stated preference data of 1,079 individuals collected in Surigao City, Philippines in 2019. Three alternative evacuation choices were classified such as stay at home, evacuation to open space, and evacuation to a public shelter. The Multinomial Logit (MNL) and the Multinomial Probit (MNP) regressions were used to develop the model for comparison. The results highlighted that the MNL and MNP were comparable in terms of log-likelihood value and McFadden R2. The estimated coefficients of the two models are in the same trend and informed that people are more likely to evacuate to open spaces or public shelters rather than stay at homes in case of the complete facility damage. Interestingly, people are least likely to leave to public refuges if there is a tsunami warning.

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© 2019 Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies
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