Visitor Excursion Behavior Model and Analysis on Its Temporal Transferability Between Significant Events

Abstract

The 2019 opening of the main facility of a redevelopment project in Kumamoto City should have a significant effect on the number of visitors to the center of Kumamoto City as well as their excursion behavior. In this study, we investigated the actual state of excursion behavior in the city center by conducting surveys and developing an excursion behavior model according to the survey data. Then, we tested the temporal transferability of the model estimated according to past survey data to predict future excursion behavior. The results indicated that the number of visitors entering this area significantly increased and that the pattern of excursion behavior dramatically changed after the facility opened. The hypothesis of temporal transferability was statistically rejected.