Large-scale Disaster Evacuation Choice Behavior Modelling Under Compound Risk of Natural Disasters Amid COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan

抄録

As a pre-disaster risk mitigation plan, evacuation planners allocate specific locations as disaster evacuation shelters. However, existing studies reported the presence of a diverse evacuation choice behavior among individuals rather than evacuating to evacuation shelters. Moreover, the conjunction of a natural disaster with a highly infectious disease such as COVID-19 questions the capacity of evacuation shelters and changes the psychological behavior of evacuees including evacuation destination choice. To this end, as a result of this paper`s literature review, an evacuation choice behavior model is developed based on a stated preference survey, applied to a city to predict the evacuation decision of individuals under compound risk of flood or earthquake disaster amid the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper is aimed to fill the research gap and help evacuation planners by developing an evacuation choice model to distribute facilities and services during a natural disaster based on the new estimated demand.