Demand Estimation and Feasibility Study of Intercity eVTOL Shuttle Services for Business Use between Central Tokyo and Major Cities in the Northern Kanto Region of Japan

抄録

This study proposes a simplified methodology for estimating potential demand for intercity electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing (eVTOL) shuttle services. Focusing on business travel, we conduct a case analysis of shuttle services connecting central Tokyo with major cities in the northern Kanto region of Japan. The analysis involves estimating demand based on current volumes of business travel by rail and modal shift rates derived from the modal shift rate formula. Parameters of the formula were estimated using questionnaire survey data. Subsequently, the feasibility of the proposed services is evaluated through a comparison between estimated demand and the associated costs. The analysis reveals that the services could lead to modal shifts from rail, with projected shift rates of 18.1%–28.1% for executives and 11.1%–21.6% for non-executive employees. Furthermore, it is indicated that the feasibility of the services is enhanced when infrastructure costs are publicly funded and pilotless operations are implemented.