Causal Inference on the Effects of Continuous Grade Separation Projects on the Population of Station Areas

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of railway continuous grade separation projects on the population of station areas through statistical causal inference. The analysis targets railway sections completed after 1976 in regional cities of Japan. We estimated whether the population increased or decreased in the mesh surrounding the stations. The results indicated a positive effect, with an increase of approximately 120 people per square kilometer. However, the population growth rate was not statistically significant. When categorizing the results by the year of project completion, projects implemented in the late 1970s showed a significantly positive impact on the post-completion population, with this effect diminishing over time. Recent projects did not result in statistically significant population growth; however, a trend was observed indicating that the positive impact on the population was smaller compared to past cases.