抄録
In a road project, there are various risks in each project stage. From the viewpoint of project management, it is essential to qualitatively analyze the risks and conduct the risk management. However, in reality, the data for the analysis is usually very limited in the countries and areas in Eastern Asia. The aim of the present study is to conduct quantitative risk analysis based on real data in road projects in Japan and discuss the risk management. Based on the obtained data, the frequency and the impact of each event are analyzed and summarized in a risk ranking matrix. In addition, arrow diagrams are built to represent the sequence of project steps. By translating the arrow diagrams to Monte Carlo simulation system, some model projects are simulated. The simulation results show several important implications such as management strategy based on the possibility of each pass to become the bottle neck.
