MOTORIZATION AND URBAN MOBILITY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES EXPLORING POLICY OPTIONS THROUGH DYNAMIC SIMULATION

抄録

Degrading condition of urban mobility in developing countries is an important policy issue. The rapid trend of motorization is likely to make the situation further worse. In particular, the declining trend of modal share of public transport in the cities of developing countries manifests a multidimensional problem. Though international patterns and policy experiences offer valuable insights for policy makers, the complex dynamics of urban transport system often resists intuitive policy alternatives. In this paper, a dynamic hypothesis in the form of feedback relationship is proposed and a System Dynamics model is formulated to experiment some of commonly discussed policy alternatives. The simulation result reveals that introduction of off-road rapid transit system is important not only to maintain or regain the modal share of public transport but also to improve road traffic congestion. However, rapid transit system developed too late may bring only limited impact primarily due to unfavorable land-use condition.