Path Analysis of International Dry Bulk Carriers Based on Structural Equation Modeling

Abstract

In this paper, we focus on the international dry bulk freight rates, make qualitative analyses on the composing factors of the dry bulk shipping market, and investigate the features of mutual action of the world dry bulk demand and supply, sum up the features of the present shipping market. Meanwhile, we make a series of quantitative studies on the existence, nature and magnitude of regularity, transportation costs, supply and demand relationship, economy and trade, seasonal factors and the political environmental factors by SEM--structural equation modeling. And the path coefficients of factors are calculated through data analysis, by which we explain the relationship between the major factors; provide a strong basis for the analysis and forecasting the international dry bulk freight rates.