The Effect of Traffic and Road Conditions to the Fatality Rates on Rural Roads in Eastern Indonesia

Abstract

This paper presents the effect of traffic and roads conditions to the accident rates on rural interurban roads in Eastern Indonesia. The survey was conducted in 7 provinces on 35 sections of roads. However, is only 18 sections of roads were able used for constructing the accident rates model. The multivariate regression linier with Poisson error was chosen as the best models and it concluded that the proportion of motorcycles, roughness index, road width and average speed are contributing significantly to the fatality rate in terms of fatalities over 100 million vehicle kilometre travelled. It is suggested that by limiting the number of motorcycles will have a greater impact to road safety. Increasing proportion of motorcycles by 10% will increase fatality rate by 30%. Reducing road width by 0.5 m, increasing average speed by 5 kph and increasing IRI index by 1 will increase fatality rate by 8.50%, 3.50% and 2.80% respectively.