Projecting CO₂ Emission from International Aviation Considering Network Structure and Fleet Size

Abstract

This paper provides the future projection of CO₂ emission from international aviation, considering changes of international network structure and fleet size. The network structure includes two common types, namely the hub-and-spoke system and the point-to-point system, and two other in-between network cases are assumed. Also regarded is the more use of smaller aircraft for more efficient and more frequent flight services. The two cases for fleet size include the use of current size fleet and smaller size fleet. The future aviation demand and CO₂ emission is projected under six scenarios, built by the combination of these cases. The result suggests that the utilization of smaller aircraft induces less amount of CO₂ emission. Also, the point-to-point system has the effect of CO₂ emission reduction to some extent.