大学進学行動の経済分析

収益率研究の成果・現状・課題

抄録

The nightmare experienced by Japanese students preparing for college entrance examinations is well-known throughout the world. Some economic analyses have attempted to explain why high school students compete so hard to enter colleges, as well as why elementary and junior high school students study diligently. Despite these analyses, much has yet to be clearly explained regarding this topic.
This paper will attempt to clarify the following three points:(1) we examine whether time-series change of private internal rates of return for men's college education has influenced the variation in application rates since the 1980s;(2) we will show the time-series change of rates of return by level of education, size of company, and sector of employment since the 1970s; and (3) we compare ex ante rates of return for 1974 college entrants and their ex post rates of return.
Our findings are as follows:(1) The time-series change of private rates of return for men's college education has influenced the variation in application rates positively.(2) Rates of return for average college graduates, and college graduates who work for large-sized companies and in finance have not changed since the 1980s. But rates of return for junior colleges graduates, college graduates who work for small-sized companies and in manufacturing have declined since the latter half of the 1970s.(3) Ex ante rates of return for men's college education do not differ from ex post rates of return very much. But Ex post rates of return for college graduates who work for large-sized companies and in financeare higher than ex ante rates of return. And ex post rates of return for junior college graduates, and college graduates who work for small-sized enterprise and in manufacturing are smaller than ex ante rates of return.
Judging from these results, we think that competition to enter more competitive colleges will continue to be fierce, whereas it will be difficult for some less competitive colleges to attract high school students.