EU周縁国からの人口流出と過疎化

抄録

　In all new EU member states from Central and Eastern Europe except Slovenia, the Czech Republic and Slovakia their total populations have been decreasing since their EU accession. Especially striking are cases of Lithuania, Latvia, Romania and Bulgaria. A natural increase in population turned negative already in the 1990s in all the countries, but a decrease in total population in these four countries can be mostly ascribed to a massive emigration to advanced EU member states. As the EU has a principle of free mobility of people labor migration within the region is quite natural, but a too rapid outflow of people has been giving serious influences on the economic development of sending countries. In Lithuania, for example, during 27 years from 1992 through 2019 its population has decreased by about a quarter （24.6％）. As an aging society with fewer children in parallel with such a too rapid decrease in population is causing a lack of skilled workers and a fear that the pension budget could not be maintained in the future, this situation is taken by many people with a sense of crisis. Such a phenomenon affects also host countries. They show great consideration for migrant workers’ social integration, but it takes a time and a certain cost. If foreign workers flow into advanced EU member states at a too rapid pace, it might cause friction in their society.

　As for international labor migration, a majority of studies so far have focused on host countries, but this paper considers the problem from a standpoint of sending countries. It examines causes of such an intense emigration from Lithuania, taking into account differences from the case of Estonia where emigration is not so intense. Larger income inequality within the country has been a key factor urging people to emigrate. It seems that a series of reforms after the system change, especially the Lithuanian government’s desperate efforts to enter the Eurozone have caused strains on the society. A decrease in income inequality in the country would require an effective taxation reform and other measures.

　Assistance to new EU member states from the EU has been directed mainly to the improvement of infrastructure in poorer regions, but such assistance has not brought a creation of sufficient jobs in peripheral member states. It would be better for policies makers as well as researchers to pay more attention to challenges of development of human capital in peripheral member states.