The limits of Euroscepticism

A survey experiment on public opinion toward the EU and free trade in Italy

Abstract

　The EU has a long history as a free trade area. The support for free trade and closely-knit European integration has remained stable despite the euro and refugee crises in the 2010s. Italy is uniquely positioned in this context because it has experienced a radical transformation from a pro-EU country to a representative of EU critics. Why has the support for European integration been changing so radically, and how has the change been linked to the support for free trade in Italy?

　This paper address this puzzle by examining the relationship between support for free trade and EU integration in contemporary Italian public opinion through a survey experiment. Using randomly assigned stimuli （consumer and international competition with China）, the experiment shows that ⑴ the support for international trade and EU integration is also firm in Italy, and ⑵ Both consumer and international competition priming does not decrease but increase the support for free trade and the EU. ⑶ There are differences in support depending on attribute factors （gender, employment, and age） and attitudinal factors （partisanship, nationalism, and views on migration）. ⑶ Surprisingly, the left gives more support for the EU, and ⑷ the factors expected to undermine support for international trade and the EU, such as poor economic conditions and opposition to immigration, instead increase support for the EU.

　The analysis in this paper suggests a complex structure of support for free trade and European integration in Italy. The result has revealed that the core of European integration, the Common Market, enjoys strong support, while the support comes partly from factors contrary to EU values as defensive attitudes.