抄録
PETROL is a software system developed to assess the economic potential of petroleum exploration for corporate planning and government policy purposes based on present-day economic and technological conditions. Three interrelated main programs carry out:
•economic evaluation of individual petroleum fields (PETROL 1) ;
•statistical analysis of field variables (PETROL 2) ; and
•assessment of the economic potential of petroleum exploration (PETROL 3) .
This paper focuses on PETROL 3, the program that assesses the potential value of petroleum exploration for a country, region, or basin of interest. The cash flow distributions for economic fields evaluated in PETROL 1 and exploration-phase estimates are the main inputs for this program. The evaluation procedure comprises two steps. The first step involves medium-term assessment of the economics of field development, representing the successful result of petroleum exploration. The second step is the long-term assessment of the economic potential of petroleum exploration. Unit exploration costs, discovery risks, and organizational risk criteria are also appraised.
Application of the PETROL 3 program is illustrated by assessing the economic potential of petroleum exploration in the Cooper-Eromanga basin of Australia. The database for this case study includes $1, 334 million* of petroleum exploration expenditures, 344 new field wildcat wells, 159 technical successes, and 116 possible economic fields discovered as a result of those expenditures up to 1987.
[* All money values are expressed in constant 1990 Australian dollars]
