The Flood and Drought Risk Assessment due to Global Warming

抄録

　In order to implement policy measures on practical water management related to floods to combat the influences of variations in rainfall characteristics arising from global warming, there is a need for quantitative indicators of future regional-based flood risk. In this study, changes in regional-based flood risk arising from global warming were analyzed based on records of observed precipitation obtained in Japan over the past 100 years. The effectiveness of the risk assessment was then evaluated using the results of projection of regional climate change over the next 50 and 100 years by the RCM20 regional climate model developed by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI). Based on that changes in regional-based flood risk were forecasted. This study was based on a joint study between the National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management (NILIM) and JMA/MRI under the Global Warming Research Initiative of the Council for Science and Technology Policy, Cabinet Office of Japan.