Geographical review of Japan series A
Online ISSN : 2185-1751
Print ISSN : 1883-4388
ISSN-L : 1883-4388
ORIGINAL ARTICLES
Block- and Neighborhood-Level Determinants of Urban Crime: Multilevel Analysis of Residential Burglaries in Suginami Ward, Tokyo
UESUGI MasayaHINO Kimihiro
Author information
JOURNAL FREE ACCESS

2018 Volume 91 Issue 3 Pages 249-266

Details
Abstract

The significance of the microenvironment in explaining crime patterns has recently been recognized because crime is concentrated in a small number of microsites and conventional units of analysis may mask lower geographic variability. Crime theories explain spatial variations in crime using environmental approaches based on crime opportunities and ecological approaches. Opportunity theories (e.g., routine activity theory, crime pattern theory, and crime prevention through environmental design /defensible space theory) focus on smaller spatial units such as blocks or street segments, while social disorganization theory, which is derived from the ecological approach, emphasizes the role of social processes within the larger neighborhood or community. Nonetheless, previous studies testing these theories have aggregated neighborhood structures at a single level. In this study, we aimed to explain residential burglaries at the block scale by exploring the impact of different levels of spatial contexts from various theoretical perspectives.

Residential burglary data at the block level for Suginami ward in Tokyo were examined to clarify the block- and neighborhood-level determinants of residential burglaries by using multilevel overdispersed Poisson regressions. A total of 434 burglaries were recorded from July 2009 to May 2011 and displayed a significant spatial autocorrelation pattern. We hypothesized that crime opportunities at the block level and social disorganization at the neighborhood level, defined as an area of neighborhood associations and local safety patrols, affect burglaries independently and simultaneously. Block-level crime opportunities are measured based on the concept of suitable targets, capable guardianship, proximity to crime generators, and environmental design. Meanwhile, neighborhood social disorganization is measured by socioeconomic disadvantage and residential mobility.

The results show that some crime opportunities explain the variability of burglaries within a neighborhood. Blocks with a high percentage of low-rise multifamily dwellings have a significantly higher burglary risk. This can be explained by target suitability and accessibility. Moreover, large household size appears to increase capable guardianship. These findings are consistent with those of previous neighborhood-level studies that investigated the relationship between crime rates and the local context. Contrary to the expectations for crime generators, the proximity to convenience stores was associated with lower levels of burglary. Convenience stores located in urban areas may serve as natural guardians by day and night, while no evidence was found in terms of other crime generators and environmental design variables at the block level.

Furthermore, the results indicate that neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage and residential mobility increase the burglary risk independent of block-level opportunities. These findings support our hypothesis that social disorganization increases burglary risk due to reduced informal social control. Neighborhood social disorganization also accounts for part of the variance in burglary risk across neighborhoods.

In conclusion, although theories have been developed and tested mainly in Western countries, our empirical analysis of block-level residential burglaries showed that crime theories integrated at different levels of the spatial context are applicable to Japanese urban neighborhoods. These findings suggest that independent crime processes operate simultaneously at different spatial scales; they are also expected to provide useful insights into crime prevention measures as well as a better understanding of the microgeography of crime.

Content from these authors
© 2018 The Association of Japanese Geographers
Previous article Next article
feedback
Top