2017 年 14 巻 1 号 p. 62-73
This study utilizes time-series data on the excess influx of population to the Greater Tokyo Area (Tokyo, Saitama, Chiba, and Kanagawa Prefectures) as well as indices of income per capita of this same region to conduct an analysis of the causal relationship between inter-regional income disparity and domestic demographic shift. Data from 1972 to 2014 were analyzed using the Granger causality test, which revealed the existence of a causal effect of inter-regional income disparity on demographic shift but not vice versa. This result suggests that this population influx into the Greater Tokyo Area could be motivated by higher income in that region. The data also revealed that the higher income was brought about by the concentration of industries with high labor productivity in the Greater Tokyo Area, particularly in Tokyo itself.