カーボンニュートラルに向けた水素エネルギーの将来像のシナリオ分析―水素エネルギー協会50周年記念行事―

抄録

To clarify the role of hydrogen and vital technological and infrastructural development, an imported hydrogen core, a synthetic fuel core and a domestic hydrogen core scenarios have been discussed using techno-economic analysis of carbon neutral energy systems of Japan. A significant amount of domestic renewable energies will be introduced in all scenarios, and even the energy self-sufficiency of the imported hydrogen core scenario will reach 45%, while the current energy self-sufficiency is less than 10%. To import hydrogen, hydrogen infrastructure is very important for the Tokyo, Chubu, Kansai, and Chugoku areas where there are large energy demand. If less expensive hydrogen transport such as widespread of hydrogen pipeline infrastructure is realized, consumer sector will select distributed generation systems such as fuel cell cogeneration, otherwise, all domestic energy transmission will use electricity if hydrogen transportation is expensive. To select a fuel synthesis core scenario, the cost of fuel synthesis including the production of carbon-neutral CO₂ must be lower than the cost of hydrogen storage and transportation. The investment to install infrastructure for the synthesis fuel core scenario is the most inexpensive of these scenarios. The energy price of the imported core scenario will be the cheapest, and the domestic hydrogen core scenario will be the best for energy security. To ensure economic rationality and energy security, it is necessary to choose a hydrogen core scenario that utilizes both international and domestic renewable energies.