抄録
It is said that M8 class earthquake like the 1944 Tonankai earthquake may occur in the seismogenic zone off the Kii peninsula with considerably high probability in the near future. Such a large earthquake with shallow focal depth is prone to generate long-period ground motions which strongly excite liquid sloshing of oil storage tanks, as in the 1964 Niigata earthquake and the 1999 Chi-Chi Taiwan earthquake.
Here, we tried to predict the long-period ground motions from the hypothetical Tonankai earthquake at Nagoya, where tanks will be strongly affected, based on the empirical and theoretical methods. As a result, we found that the predicted acceleration spectra by both methods agree with each other, and that the predicted spectra show the high risk of overflow of oil from tanks with about 3 sec of natural period of sloshing.
