Hydrological Research Letters
Online ISSN : 1882-3416
ISSN-L : 1882-3416
Future projection of flood inundation considering land-use changes and land subsidence in Jakarta, Indonesia
Idham Riyando MoeShuichi KureNurul Fajar JanuriyadiMohammad FaridKeiko UdoSo KazamaShunichi Koshimura
ジャーナル オープンアクセス

2017 年 11 巻 2 号 p. 99-105


Jakarta is facing several issues related to flooding, includ­ing land subsidence in the coastal area and rapid land-use/cover changes in the upstream area. In this study, we analyzed the effects of future changes in land use and land subsidence using a rainfall-runoff and flood inundation model. The future land-use scenarios were projected based on the SLEUTH model, and land subsidence was projected based on an extrapolation of the current state in Jakarta.

Based on this analysis, land-use changes and land subsidence contributed to an increase in flood inundation volume of 36.8% from 2013 to 2050. Moreover, the effects of land-use changes on flood inundation in Jakarta were much greater than those of land subsidence. The government’s current target to stop land subsidence by 2020 would cause a 7.7% decrease in the flood inundation volume by 2050. Furthermore, controlling and regulating land-use/cover changes by 2020 would cause a 10.9% decrease in the flood inundation volume by 2050. From these results, we conclude that a flood mitigation plan should be made not only for land subsidence, but also for land-use changes.

© 2017 The Author(s) CC-BY 4.0 (Before 2017: Copyright © Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources)
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