Quantitative estimations of hazards resulting from Typhoon Chanthu (2016) for assessing the impact in current and future climate

抄録

Many recent studies have argued that tropical cyclones will become severer in future warming climate and may cause various catastrophic damages to human life and economy. This study explores the impact of climate change on Typhoon Chanthu (2016) by performing a high-resolution (1 km) simulation for current and future climate. We focused on the typhoon intensity, size, heat fluxes, associated precipitation and wind speed over northern Japan under global warming with different initial times at 6-hour interval. We find that the typhoon tracks in the present and future climates remained similar, however with stronger intensity and heat fluxes in warming climate condition. In the landfall region of Hokkaido in future climate, the maximum wind speed and precipitation amount associated with the typhoon is significantly increased. The results imply that the damages associated with Typhoon Chanthu in future climate over northern Japan would be enhanced through strong wind, heavy rainfall and flooding.