Kushiro wetland climate change impact assessment using a high-resolution climate change projection model

抄録

In the renowned Kushiro wetland, Japan, the government has been undertaking a nature restoration project to counter the impact of post-WW2 restoration land development. The recent typhoon landfalls in Hokkaido has triggered concerns about the potential impact of climate change. In response, the government plans to incorporate nature restoration as an adaptation strategy to mitigate climate risks. To support this initiative, which involves an assessment of climate change impacts, we improved the high-resolution climate change projections and hydrological model to predict future impacts on wetlands in terms of river discharge and sediment runoff. The results show that although there is no significant increase in the risk of drought, intense rainfall and flooding are likely. In addition, simulated sediment runoff increased by mean of 2–3 folds due to increased summer flooding, and the frequency of intense sediment runoff events increased by 10 fold. These results show that countermeasures against sediments are important for protecting wetland ecosystems from climate change.