Abstract
Purpose: In order to supply influenza vaccines in a stable manner in Japan, we have estimated influenza vaccination rates and predicted demand for vaccines every year since the 2000/01 season. The present paper deals with the prediction of demand for vaccines in the 2011/12 season. Methods: The survey was conducted at 3,376 medical institutions randomly selected from those with a record of purchasing influenza vaccines. Data on the number of vaccinated individuals in the 2010/11 season and the predicted number of individuals who would be vaccinated in the next season were collected. Based on the data, the quantity of influenza vaccine that would be required in the 2010/11 season was estimated. Results: The predicted demand was 27.65 million bottles (1 bottle: 1.0mL).However, the actual demand was 25.10 million bottles and the prediction overestimated the demand by 10.2 percent.
