広域的に多数台導入された太陽光発電に関する出力変動幅の推定法

抄録

The largest output fluctuation is an index used to quantify disturbance against a power grid caused by wind power plants and photovoltaic power generation systems connected to it. To develop its estimation method, we investigate the relationship between the largest output fluctuation and the standard deviation of a newly proposed stochastic variable derived from the output variation of photovoltaic power generation systems. Output fluctuation coefficients are defined and estimated using the measured data of photovoltaic power generation systems located at 52 places. An approximation formula is presented to predict correlation factors between the stochastic variables corresponding to photovoltaic power generation systems using distances between their locations. Finally it is shown that the largest output fluctuation of many photovoltaic power generation systems dispersed in a wide area is predictable by using the output fluctuation coefficients and the formula to approximate the correlation factors.