抄録
Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) is one of the technologies to reduce amount of CO2 emissions in transport section. This paper presents one of the scenarios that shows how widely used the PHEVs will be in the future. And this paper also presents how amount of CO2 will be reduced by the introduction of PHEVs, and whether there are any serious effects on power supply system in those scenarios.
PHEV can run with both gasoline and electricity. Therefore we evaluate CO2 emissions not only from gasoline consumption but also from electricity consumption. To consider a distribution of daily-trip-distance is important for evaluating the economical merit and CO2 emissions by introducing of PHEV. Also, the battery cost in the future is very important for making a PHEV's growth scenario. The growth of the number of PHEV makes battery cost lower. Then, we formulate the total model that combines passenger car sector and power supply sector with considering a distribution of daily-trip-distance and Learning Curve on battery costs. We use the iteration method to consider a Learning Curve that is non- linear. Therefore we set battery cost only in the first year of the simulation. Battery costs in the later year are calculated in the model. We focus on the 25-year time frame from 2010 in Japan, with divided in 5 terms (1st∼5th). And that model selects the most economical composition of car type and power sources.
