IEEJ Transactions on Power and Energy
Online ISSN : 1348-8147
Print ISSN : 0385-4213
ISSN-L : 0385-4213
Paper
Analysis of Dissemination of Residential PV Systems in Japan
Eiichi Endo
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2012 Volume 132 Issue 5 Pages 478-485

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Abstract

This paper focuses on residential PV systems in Japan. It projects installation and installed capacity of residential PV systems by analyzing correlation between their pay-back period and annual installation by new and existing houses. Exponential and hyperbolic curves are applied for correlation analysis. But exponential curve shows better fit than hyperbolic one. PV installation in new houses shows stronger correlation with pay-back period than that in existing houses. For the installation projection, target and delayed scenarios are assumed. In the target scenario, target price is achieved as planned. However it is achieved with delay in the delayed scenario. Ongoing subsidy and feed-in-tariff is also assumed. Based on the results of the analysis, the target cumulative installation and installed capacity are achieved in the target scenario. They are not so affected even if without subsidy and feed-in-tariff. But they become almost half in the delayed scenario compared with that in the target scenario. This means system price reduction by R&D and mass production is more effective than ongoing dissemination acceleration programs. To achieve the target capacity, not only cost reduction, but also conversion efficiency improvement by R&D is indispensable.

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© 2012 by the Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan
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