コピュラを用いた発電出力シナリオに基づくウィンドファームの確率論的計画発電

抄録

Recently, the penetration of wind farm (WF) has been increasing because of the global warming and the lack of the fossil energy resource. However, WF output fluctuate due to the weather and the seasonality. Specially, the long-term fluctuation is called “Ramp event”. It's difficult for WF output to dispatch to the power grid without controlling the ramp events. This paper proposes the method of scheduled operation to mitigate the ramp events and reduce the imbalance energy with the stochastic programming. In this method, it's necessary to use the WF output scenarios. However, there has never been studied the method of generating scenarios with the temporal correlation so far. Therefore, we propose the production method of generating scenarios considering the temporal correlation with copula. Finally, this paper shows the validity and the effectiveness of these methods through computational simulations using the integrated WF data of Tohoku area.