リスク鋭感的価値尺度を用いた供給信頼度指標

抄録

Loss-of-load probability (LOLP) and expected unserved energy (EUE) are common as the power supply reliability indices based on probabilistic theory from the view point of the adequacy. These conventional indices are expected values of the annual blackout duration and unserved energy calculated by Monte Carlo method or state enumeration. Since these indices evaluate the probability distribution of blackout risk with only the expected value, it is possible to evaluate improperly because the information possessed by the probability distribution is ignored. In this paper, risk measure which is used in Economics is applied to supply reliability indicator. Since blackout is considered as the risk for the consumers, Risk Sensitive Value Measure (RSVM) is studied, that is a risk measure based on expected utility theory. The essence of RSVM is the weighting of the risk by the utility function for the probability distribution. Numerical simulations using IEEE-reliability test system are executed and the results clarify the effectiveness and natures of the proposed method.