電力系統における変動性再生可能エネルギー電源出力のアンサンブル予測を考慮した確率論的発電機起動停止計画の経済性評価

抄録

Power generation of variable renewable energy depends on the weather and therefore has uncertainty. In this paper, we utilize the ensemble prediction to address the uncertainty of solar photovoltaics (PV) power and wind turbine (WT) power. Forecasted scenarios that obtained by ensemble prediction are applied to stochastic unit commitment (SUC). The SUC model is formulated to minimize sum of startup costs and expected fuel costs, allowing multiple forecasts such as ensemble prediction to be considered. Following the UC, economic dispatch control (EDC) using observed PV output and WT output is calculated and operation cost is analyzed. We also consider a model utilizing ensemble prediction to determine water reserve rate of pumped hydro. Finally, we evaluated these models from the viewpoints of economic efficiency and found that SUC models are more reasonable compared to other deterministic models.