PV/風力変動モデルを用いた積雪によるPV予測誤差の電力需給への広域的影響評価

抄録

The amount of electricity generated by photovoltaic (PV) systems can traditionally be calculated from solar radiation, but predictions can be significantly off due to snow accumulation on PV panels. Additionally, the output of wind farms (WF) varies with meteorological conditions, making predictions challenging. We have previously assumed the year 2040 and, focusing on days where PV output predictions were inaccurate, provided deterministic scenarios. By solving the Unit Commitment (UC) problem, we evaluated the impact of PV output prediction errors due to snow accumulation on power supply operation. In this study, we conducted Monte Carlo simulations considering the uncertainty of PV output and WF output for both 2021 and 2040. We analyzed the impact of PV output prediction errors due to snow accumulation on power supply operation. The simulation results revealed that improving the accuracy of PV output predictions is effective in reducing the risk of supply disruptions.