抄録
It is generally understood that a mechanical disturbance due to an abrupt conductor motion is one of main causes of premature quenches in a high-performance and high-current density superconducting magnet. It is considered that this conductor motion is caused by insufficiency of force supporting the conductor. In an usual magnet of significant scale, the conductors are supported by frictional force between the spacers and the conductors. Generally, there are irregularities in contact forces at the interfaces between the conductors and the spacers, which are caused by local bent of the conductor and fluctuation in the dimensions of the spacer. Therefore, there are probably the interfaces where the contact forces are not enough to support the conductor subject to the electromagnetic force.
In the paper, we assume that local bent of the conductor and fluctuation in the dimensions of the spacer are gaussian stocastic processes and calculate the probability of the conductor motion and the expectation of the number of premature quenches.
