抄録
In this paper, the effect of Photovoltaic Power Generation system (PV system) on power plant mix is evaluated mainly from the viewpoint of economics, by using real data of the load and the solar radiation. For this purpose, first, we examine statistically the correlation between the PV system output and the load, as well as their periodic and random variation characteristics. Second, referring to the result of this statistical analysis, the probabilistic models of the load and the PV system output, in which these characteristics are properly reflected, are built. Due to these models, the load-probability distributions are derived for the power system with and without the PV system, respectively. Finally, we construct the optimal power plant mix with each of them, and investigate the effect of the PV system by comparing these results. Particularly, it is quantitatively demonstrated that the correlation characteristic between the load and the PV system output is a significant factor in evaluating the PV system. Further, economic indexes of the PV system are evaluated considering its penetration rate into the power system and also variation of the load characteristics.
