世界エネルギーモデルによる不確定なCO₂濃度規制下での意思決定分析とその発電部門との関連

抄録

The global warming caused by the increase of the atmospheric CO₂ concentration has been regarded as a serious environmental issue. Due to significant uncertainty as to mechanisms of terrestrial carbon cycle and climate system, the solution of this problem is considered to be extremely complicated. It is, therefore, quite uncertain whether or not political muscles will be used for tackling the CO₂ problem in the near future.
In such a context, to conduct a decision analysis under uncertain CO₂ concentration control policies, the authors developed a global energy model which minimizes the expected value of discounted total energy system costs up to the year 2055. The model developed here enables us to analyze a two-step decision making process, and is formulated as a dynamic linear programming problem with about ten thousand equations. Within the framework of the model, the whole world is divided into six regions. The model takes into account energy conservation in end-use and conversion sectors, utilization of various renewable energy resources, disposal and recycle of CO₂ recovered, and innovative system technologies.
In this paper we analyzed the optimal future global energy system particularly focusing on Japanese electric power sector, and presents the insight into the optimal strategy for energy system development under uncertain policies.