抄録
A new approach to predict a swing of generators against the remaining generators in a power system is proposed. Dynamic behavior of the generators is supposed to be represented by a set of state equations for the equivalent power system model composed of two generators. The values of parameters of equations of equivalent generators are estimated so that the simulated values using the equivalent power system model coincide with the data measured at the actual network for the past short period. Then the swing during the short period in the future is predicted by solving the equations defined on the equivalent.
