生産習熟効果を考慮した統合型資源計画モデルによる蓄熱式空調機器の普及規模と費用対効果の分析

抄録

Demand-Side Management (DSM) gives the utility flexible load management measures of electric power system and, to promote it to the power system, it is necessary to study the long-term cost-effectiveness of DSM programs as well as the short-term one. We have developed a prototype model of Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) to optimize dynamically the promotion of the DSM programs in the planning period in comparison with supply-side resources. The DSM program promotion costs the utility direct payment to program participants and lost revenue caused by change of load shape. Technological learning of DSM equipment is also incorporated endogenously into the model to analyze dynamical penetration of the new technology. We show the importance of technology learning in the cost-effectiveness analysis through a case study for commercial thermal storage system that are the most promising DSM program in Japan. We evaluated market penetration, cost-effectiveness of the program and the resulting effect in the power system until the year 2014.