衛星雲画像を利用した雲アルベドの動的分析

抄録

The knowledge of the available solar irradiation at the earth's surface is essential for any type of solar power systems in terms of their design, site selection, and performance analysis. However, the irradiation observer networks at ground level are not enough to obtain the reliable information of the solar energy distribution in the world. On the other hands, Geostationary Meteorological Satellites (GMS) provides the images of cloud fields over the whole surface of the Earth. An irregular change in the irradiation at the ground level caused mainly by the effect of the clouds. Therefore, the methods of estimating the solar irradiation by using the GMS images become very useful. This paper describes the methods for forecasting solar irradiance by using GMS images. As the first attempt, the authors forecasted the cloud albedo by a basic study of irradiance estimating driving drift vector of clouds using GMS images. A new procedure is also proposed to remove the effect of ground albedo, which disturbs the cloud movement analysis. Annual forecast probability was estimated as 66. 8% for one hour ahead, 58.5% for two hours ahead and 52.7% for three hours ahead at 20 sites.